Strong growth and wary voters shape Madrid’s cautious defence stance.

Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez has declined to back a new NATO goal to lift defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, unsettling allies who want Madrid to do more as the war in Ukraine grinds on. The move comes despite a broader alliance push to raise outlays from the previous 2% benchmark.

Spain has long lagged on defence budgets, spending 1.28% of GDP before 2023, the lowest among NATO members. Its military aid to Ukraine, €790 million between January 2022 and August 2025, also trails larger European economies by a wide margin. Germany has committed €17.7 billion, the United Kingdom €13.3 billion and Italy €1.7 billion, while Greece has pledged €150 million. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte of the Netherlands has played down frictions over Spain’s contribution, but Finland’s defence minister Antti Häkkänen has urged all members to shoulder a fairer share.

Sánchez’s stance is shaped by domestic politics as well as economics. 67% of Spaniards view Sánchez as untrustworthy, according to polling. Even so, a majority supports his resistance to a sharp military build-up, a position that may bolster him at home even as it tests patience abroad. United States president Donald Trump has threatened fresh tariffs against Spain over missed NATO commitments, adding an external layer of pressure.

The debate over burden-sharing will sharpen ahead of an EU summit on defence cooperation on 23 October, when the European Commission is due to publish a defence readiness plan. Allies will watch whether Madrid signals any shift, as NATO tries to balance unity with the practical demands of rearmament and support for Kyiv.