European weapons factories are expanding at triple their peacetime rate, a Financial Times analysis of radar satellite data reveals. The rearmament effort spans over 7mn square metres of new development across 150 facilities. The analysis, which used data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellites, tracked changes at sites linked to ammunition and missile production. The findings suggest Europe is undergoing a generational shift, moving from just-in-time production to building an industrial base for a more sustained wartime footing.

The expansion comes as EU governments debate how to sustain arms deliveries to Kyiv while also replenishing their own stockpiles. The FT analysis found that areas with building activity increased from 790,000 square metres in 2020-21 to 2.8mn square metres in 2024-25. A third of the sites reviewed showed signs of construction work.

A joint project by German defence giant Rheinmetall and Hungarian state defence company N7 Holding has resulted in a large new ammunition and explosives production site in Várpalota, Hungary. The first factory was finished in July 2024 and produces 30mm ammunition for Rheinmetall’s KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicle. The site will also produce 155mm artillery shells and 120mm ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks.

William Alberque, a senior adjunct fellow at the Asia Pacific Forum, stated that these are deep structural changes that will transform the defence industry in the medium to long term. He added that once shell mass-production begins, it lowers the cost and complexity of missile production.

The EU’s Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) programme has invested €500mn to address production bottlenecks. The analysis showed a clear physical expansion at 20 sites with ASAP funding, with companies receiving ASAP funds expanding more rapidly than others. A BAE Systems factory in the north of England received support from Westminster and invested over £150mn in its British munitions factories since 2022.

The EU defence commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, said Europe’s annual ammunition production capacity had increased from 300,000 to around 2mn by the end of this year. Rheinmetall’s capacity for 155mm rounds is set to increase from 70,000 in 2022 to 1.1mn in 2027. Experts believe long-range missile production remains a bottleneck. Fabian Hoffmann, a researcher at the University of Oslo, stated missiles are critical for a convincing deterrent, and that Europe must drastically expand production.

(Source: Financial Times)